This is the age of disruption.
— Sebastian Thrun
Q: How many industries have remained the same for 2,000 years?
A: Two.
The first is the "oldest profession," prostitution; the second, the trade-show industry.
That's rather remarkable when you consider the Product Lifecyle Theory.
The theory assumes obsolescence and disruption are baked in, and that only continuity in consumer tastes can forestall a product's inevitable decline.
We know the tastes matched by prostitution haven't changed much—if at all—since Caligula's time. They continue unabated.
Perhaps the same can be said of trade shows.
As the Ancient Romans did, people still want to meet "face to face" to swap stories and do business, pandemic or no.
The question isn't whether they'll want to continue to do so, but how much? How much will they want to meet face to face—and at what cost and inconvenience?
Show organizers are counting on the answer being a lot.
But their confidence may be based on a pre-virus worldview.
Businesspeople post-virus are favoring smaller, state and regional shows to get their "face-to-face fix," shunning large confabs and southern hot spots.
The days of large national and international shows may at long last be numbered—and their audiences easy pickings for some disruptor waiting in the wings.
I'm hardly the first industry-watcher to say tradeshow organizers' business model is overdue for disruption, and won't be the last.
But 2,000 years is a hell of a long time to grow without innovation.
