The Great Rule of Foresight

The best way to have a good idea is to have lots of ideas.

— Linus Pauling

Most ventures, products and ads fail. Mind-blindness, tone-deafness and overoptimism are the chief reasons why.

Nothing's fail-proof, but you can look positively clairvoyant—especially when no one's sure which direction to take—by presenting lots of ideas.

When asked, for example, to name a new product, create a campaign, or write a major headline, I strive to present clients at least 10 ideas.

I try not to fall in love with any one, but to think of all as straws in the wind.

"Throw straws in the air to test the wind," said the 17th century Jesuit Baltasar Gracian.

"By finding out how things will be perceived—especially from those whose reception or success is doubtful—you can determine a great deal about their chances of turning out well, and decide whether you should proceed in earnest or withdraw entirely.

"By trying people’s intentions in this way, the wise person knows on what ground he stands. This is the great rule of foresight in asking, in desiring, and in ruling."

Right to Life

If Las Vegas doesn't cause you to question unchecked gun rights, what will?

Conservatives gaze at enemies and insist the Constitution assures our right to bear arms, because it's "a way that the weak can protect themselves against the strong."

Liberals gaze at young people's corpses and insist the Constitution assures "our right to a happy life."

There seems to be no room in conservatives' minds for equality, fairness, reasonableness, or real-life experience; there's room only for the endless fairy tale of "the weak" vanquishing "the strong."

In Stephen Paddock, they've found their perfect spokesman.

In defense of fairness, philosopher John Rawls once asked students to imagine themselves behind a "veil of ignorance."

Forget, for a moment, your personal situation (your wants and needs; your race and sex; your religion and education; your social and economic class; and so forth).

Then ask yourself: Without those privileges (or disadvantages), what kind of world would you want to be born into?

You'd be forced to conclude you want a world governed by fairness, where everyone is equal—and deserves equally to live.

Google: Popups Will be Penalized

If you value SEO, remove popups from your website.

Google doesn't love them anymore.

This January, its bots began to penalize sites that include them.

“Pages that show intrusive interstitials provide a poorer experience to users than other pages where content is immediately accessible,” Google's engineers proclaim.

Your site is toast if it displays a popup that covers content after the user lands on a page, or that appears while he's viewing it. 

You get doubly burned if the user has to kill the popup to view the content.

The only allowances Google makes are for helpful popups, like those seeking age verification or informing visitors about cookies.

Price of Freedom

The phrase "the price of freedom" used to be reserved for reference to war dead.

Bill O'Reilly has co-opted it for a new purpose.

America has lost its way.

The Under Toad

This post originally appeared December 19, 2012. My opinion has only grown stronger in the intervening five years. 

I met Gonzo journalist Hunter S. Thompson at a conference once.

It was 1972. The country was deep in the throes of a Presidential election.

Four months earlier, segregationist and gun-loving Alabama Governor George Wallace had lost his bid for the Presidency thanks to a would-be assassin.

I asked Dr. Thompson whether he thought Wallace might change his stance on gun control after being shot five times in the chest and stomach.

"I don't know," Thompson snarled. "But I do know this. Everyone should carry a gun. We all should carry guns. The streets would be a lot safer. America would be a better place."

Thirty-three years later, depressed and deathly ill, Hunter Thompson blew off the top of his head with a shotgun.

I don't understand the pleasure of gun ownership. I don't understand the thrill of hunting animals. But a lot of people I know and admire enjoy both those things.

As a parent, however, I understand how fear and loathing due to the loss of a child could exceed any imaginable sorrow.

In his novel The World According to Garp, John Irving famously described the brutal workings of the "Under Toad," code-words for "the forces that disrupt human life and sometimes destroy it." The life of a child, in particular.

The Under Toad visited Newtown, Connecticut, last week.

Several parents will never feel sorrow-less again.